Deb Trades

Saturday 30 April 2016

How to trade Nifty for week starting 02/05/2016

Bullish Possibility:
First of all I would like to congratulate the person who predicated Nifty expiry between 7800-8000 as Nifty expired at 7847. Now let's focus on next series. As usual let's start with what we discussed last week. In my last post I mentioned that,
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we are above the falling trend channels (brown and sky blue) we are now ready for a decent bull move though we will have multiple resistances in between.
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Now let's explore what is there in Nifty store to offer us for this week. As can be seen from the above daily chart of Nifty we are still above the brown and sky line. Interestingly instead of such a landslide down move of Nifty on Thursday we are some how still managed to close at or above the blue down trending channel as well. As long as we are above this long term falling trend channel we are safe and above 7972 we could target 8650 in medium term as mentioned in my earlier post.

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As Nifty is out of the falling trend channel lines, can easily target 8650 in near future though may not go in a straight line. But through multiple resistances at different levels. The immediate 1st resistance in this case can be 7900 and then 7972 as can be seen from the stock chart. If we successfully concur this resistance zone then next resistance will come at 8323, 8650 and ultimately all time high 9119 respectively.

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Bearish Possibility:

As can be seen from the above daily chart we are currently in a consolidation zone, (the greyed area in the chart). Notice that from mid August 2015 i.e just after the giant fall and till date Nifty spent most of the time in this consolidation zone. Trading in this consolidation zone is tricky and may be expensive too as Nifty moves in a small range for most of the time. Hence till we are in this consolidation zone I do not see any straight fall below 7500 sooner and we may spend a lot of time in this consolidation zone before any significant up or down move. But which ever be the side it will be fast and furious breakout.

If you like this post do share it and leave your comment. Any question related to the topic? Feel free to ask.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any further updates on developing resistances in between. Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and other stock specific at the left hand column. You can also visit my masters (Ilango) blog for daily updates on Nifty. Happy Trading. As my mater says, Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Cheers!!

How to trade Tatamotors for week starting 02/05/2016

Bullish Possibilities:
As always we start with Bullish Possibilities. though in ST I do not see any bullish possibilities. As mentioned in my earlier post on tatamotors, Tata Motors has a resistance at around 416-431 so until unless it move past this resistance zone no bullish possibilities exist. But above 431 this stock can move close to 600 odd levels as mentioned in that post.

As can be seen from the weekly chart of Tatamotors, this stock is trying to form a W pattern and within the upward channel. So once this resistance zone (416-431) is concurred this stock can target 600 levels in medium terms.

Bearish Possibilities:
As mentioned in my last post.
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we are almost done with the immediate up move and can start a down move at any moment although whipsaw at this level is quite natural.
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And we saw tatamotor put a red candle on weekly chart last week and on Daily chart Friday close is just on/ below the ascending channel.

So next week is trend deciding week for tatamotors. If this open lower and trade lower then quite possible that this will visit 393-400 in short term as can be seen from the below hourly chart.

The last hope for bulls comes at 360-368 support zone.

Summary:
1) Till tatamotors is below 416-431 and above 360-368 it is purely in consolidation zone for positional traders.
2) Below 360-368 it is only sell.
3) Above 416-431 it is only buy.
4) In consolidation buy the dips and sell the tops.

If you like this post do share it and leave your comment. Any question related to the topic? Feel free to ask.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any further updates on developingresistances in between. Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and other stock specific at the left hand column. You can also visit my masters (Ilango) blog for daily updates on Nifty. Happy Trading. As my mater says, Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Cheers!!

How to trade Maruti for week starting 25/04/2016

Bullish Possibility:

Maruti is in strong uptrend since 2009 market crash (2008) and this week this is interesting since this has given break out in the positive direction which is also the primary trend. Last week Maruti opened at 3721 made a low at 3651, made a high at 3833 and ultimately closed at 3816 level which is above the earlier resistance (now turned support) at 3800 as mentioned in my last post,
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In daily time frame, Maruti had a recent correction some times around mid Nov from it's all time high of 4790 and currently trading at 3731, ie almost 1000 points down from it's top and all oscillators (RSI, Stochastic) are indicating highly oversold for this stock. Zooming on it's last 2 months chart we find that 3800 is a solid resistance from where it fall couple of time making this resistance a significant one. Now in coming week if this stock able to float above this resistance level then can move quickly to 4443 approx due to inverse H&S effect.
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The above view of last week also holds good as long as Maruti does not fall significantly below 3800 levels.

Bearish Possibility:
No change from my last week view.

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No stock can move in straight line. It eventually falls. Maruti had a long run from 2009 and it's very difficult to interpret at this level whether this stock had topped or not. As a short term trader it's not our job as well. We will trade this with strict stoploss. It stoploss hit we will exit or reverse as per the situation. Trading any failed pattern is also yummy. If Maruti fails to hold 3800 reverse your position and trade the negative side with target much below the HEAD of the inverse H&S pattern. But above 3800 it's always a buy.
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If you like this post do share it and leave your comment. Any question related to the topic? Feel free to ask.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any further updates on developing resistances in between. Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and other stock specific at the left hand column. You can also visit my masters (Ilango) blog for daily updates on Nifty. Happy Trading. As my mater says, Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Cheers!!

How to trade Bank Nifty for week starting 25/04/2016

Like Nifty, not much change in view for Bank Nifty as well compared to our last post. Last week Bank Nifty opened at 16329 made a low at 16012, high at 16770 and closed at 16703. A trading range of 758 points which is good for trading.This week we have Federal Reserve Monetary Policy meeting on 26-27 and like Dow Jones, our Indian market may also be affected because of the rate decision. Except this not many major events. But let's trade the chart, not the news and see what are Bullish / Bearish possibilities ahead.

Bullish Possibility:

Bank Nifty has closed above the falling trend channel (the sky blue lines) which is positive. As discussed in previous post this will eventually bring 16922 which is the next target / resistance level. If we concur 16922 as well then next set of resistances will come at around 17302, 17442, 18234 and 18890 respectively as marked in the chart. Above all these said resistances will come the ultimate all time high of Bank Nifty at 20907.

Bearish Possibility:

16922 is a good resistance to watch for before we make any further up move. My bearish view in my last post till holds good.

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If we draw a Descending Broadening Wedge starting from early Feb 2015 then we find on daily chart that Bank Nifty is still within this descending wedge pattern and the next resistance for Bank Nifty will be at the upper trend line of this falling broadening wedge which comes around 16922, which is also Fibonacci 61.8% starting from Jul 2015 high of 19229. So all these things make this level interesting to watch and act upon. Aggressive traders can trade around this level with proper stoploss and target the lower trend line of this falling broadening wedge. Bulls should be cautious at this level as very fast and deeper fall can be possible from this level. So watch this level carefully and trade cautiously.
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If you like this post do share it and leave your comment. Any question related to the topic? Feel free to ask.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any further updates on developing resistances in between. Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and other stock specific at the left hand column. You can also visit my masters (Ilango) blog for daily updates on Nifty. Happy Trading. As my mater says, Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Cheers!!

How to trade Nifty for week starting 25/04/2016

We will start with what we discussed in our last post and see how we obeyed or deviated from our analysis. As I do not trade in inraday hence last week was a muted session for me with no enjoyment, no BP increase or no sudden adrenaline in the vain but I am sure many of you trade in intraday and had good entertainment last week. I personally felt from my past experiences that if you need entertainment you missout wealth creation and vice versa, well I may be wrong as well. There are many smart traders who make money trading intraday particularly when the range is high. Actually it is easy to make money when the range is high and difficult when the range is narrowed down as stop losses eat away most of your profits. This is true for both intraday as well as for delivery. But this is a debatable topic and there are many traders who are smarter than me. Let me know what you think under comments section. okay enough blabbering, now come to the point.

Bullish Possibility:
As we discussed last week, we are above the falling trend channels (brown and sky blue) we are now ready for a decent bull move though we will have multiple resistances in between.

Below extract from my last post:

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As Nifty is out of the falling trend channel lines, can easily target 8650 in near future though may not go in a straight line. But through multiple resistances at different levels. The immediate 1st resistance in this case can be 7900 and then 7972 as can be seen from the stock chart. If we successfully concur this resistance zone then next resistance will come at 8323, 8650 and ultimately all time high 9119 respectively. The support levels lies at around 7713, 7577 and 7518.
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For this week as well the above holds good. Last week Nifty opened at 7908 and traded between 7842 and 7978, a narrow trading range of only 136 points. So not much change of my previous view.

Bearish Possibility:

We discussed last week:
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We are still in a falling channel which started from Mar 2015, the blue channel. The ONLY resistance in this channel for this week is at around 7900 and will move lower as the time passes. But this is a huge resistance and if Nifty is unable to cross this resistance level will sell off immediately and also with high magnitude. If this happens then Nifty can fall all along to 7518 initially and then even upto 7000 odd levels.
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For this week, the good news is that we are trading above this resistance channel so far though marginally. If we do NOT fall into this channel again in coming days then we will follow our Bullish Possibility else will follow above prediction i.e in that case "Nifty can fall all along to 7518 initially and then even upto 7000 odd levels." but chances are less as long we are above the blue channel.

If you like this post do share it and leave your comment. Any question related to the topic? Feel free to ask.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any further updates on developing resistances in between. Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and other stock specific at the left hand column. You can also visit my masters (Ilango) blog for daily updates on Nifty. Happy Trading. As my mater says, Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Cheers!!

How to trade Tatamotors for week starting 25/04/2016

In my earlier post I mentioned that Tata Motors has a resistance at around 416-431 Now where do we stand? As per Friday, 22/04 close we closed exactly in this region. That means 416-431 resistance zone will now defend tatamotors to move up and will try to move down or will put it into a consolidation. Here other trading strategy come handy.

In the above chart I have taken use of Elliot Waves count. You can learn about Elliot Wave in the handy tutorial that you receive once you subscribe to this site. As per this analysis we are almost done with the immediate up move and can start a down move at any moment although whipsaw at this level is quite natural. Now the question is how far this bull move can proceed in tatamotors in this current 5th wave. Frankly it is not possible to predict. This can reverse from 417 itself or move upto 431 and reverse there or even can move beyond 431 and finally fall below this level. Anyway we need to keep a close eye on it and have to use other trading techniques to handle it properly.

There are many trading techniques for this purpose. But do not try to mix them up this can be very dangerous for your account.
1) Try to identify triangles on lower time frame and when it breaks below it go short.
2) Use a moving avg, say 10 EMA and manage your position.
3) Use Divergences to identify the top.
4) Use indicators and oscillators etc.

If you like this post do share it and leave your comment. Any question related to the topic? Feel free to ask.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any further updates on developing resistances in between. Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and other stock specific at the left hand column. You can also visit my masters (Ilango) blog for daily updates on Nifty. Happy Trading. As my mater says, Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Cheers!!

How to trade Maruti for Week Starting 18/04/2016

Maruti stock is in strong uptrend since 2009 market crash (2008). Hence looks like this already topped or near to top or move into a consolidation range from long term prospective. Here we will only deal with it's short term possibilities as we are here for trading and not for investment purpose.

As always we will look into it's bullish and bearish possibilities.

Bullish Scenario:

In daily time frame, Maruti had a recent correction some times around mid Nov from it's all time high of 4790 and currently trading at 3731, ie almost 1000 points down from it's top and all oscillators (RSI, Stochastic) are indicating highly oversold for this stock. Zooming on it's last 2 months chart we find that 3800 is a solid resistance from where it fall couple of time making this resistance a significant one. Now in coming week if this stock able to float above this resistance level then can move quickly to 4443 approx due to inverse H&S effect.

Bearish Scenario:

No stock can move in straight line. It eventually falls. Maruti had a long run from 2009 and it's very difficult to interpret at this level whether this stock had topped or not. As a short term trader it's not our job as well. We will trade this with strict stoploss. It stoploss hit we will exit or reverse as per the situation. Trading any failed pattern is also yummy. If Maruti fails to hold 3800 reverse your position and trade the negative side with target much below the HEAD of the inverse H&S pattern. But above 3800 it's always a buy.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any further updates on developing resistances in between. Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and other stock specific at the left hand column. You can also visit my masters (Ilango) blog for daily updates on Nifty. Happy Trading. As my mater says, Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Cheers!!

How to trade Bank Nifty for Week Starting 18/04/2016

Bank Nifty generally moves in sync with Nifty so if you are long in Nifty your position should also long in Bank Nifty too. But this is not always true. I have seen many times when Bank Nifty moved up where as Nifty moving downward and vise-verse. But the good news is that most of the time it is not the case.

Now let's analyze what's there in Banknifty store for us for the coming week.

Bullish Scenario:

In the daily chart if we draw a falling channel starting from mid Aug 2015 (the sky blue line) we find that, Bank Nifty has clearly given a positive breakout and is trading out of the falling channel. Which is good for the bank nifty bulls. But currently dealing with resistance at around 16269 in Wednesday close, which is also the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of Bank Nifty from it's all time high of 20907 to recent low 13407 hence expected to be a good and solid resistance. So if we get a gap up opening on Monday, Bank nifty can easily target around 16922 which is next logical resistance. We will cover this up more when talking about the bearish scenario. If we concur 16922 as well then next set of resistances will come at around 17302, 17442, 18234 and 18890 respectively as marked in the chart. Above all these said resistances will come the ultimate all time high of Bank Nifty at 20907.

Bearish Scenario:

If we draw a Descending Broadening Wedge starting from early Feb 2015 then we find on daily chart that Bank Nifty is still within this descending wedge pattern and the next resistance for Bank Nifty will be at the upper trend line of this falling broadening wedge which comes around 16922, which is also Fibonacci 61.8% starting from Jul 2015 high of 19229. So all these things make this level interesting to watch and act upon. Aggressive traders can trade around this level with proper stoploss and target the lower trend line of this falling broadening wedge. Bulls should be cautious at this level as very fast and deeper fall can be possible from this level. So watch this level carefully and trade cautiously.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any updates on developing resistances in between.
Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and stock specific at the left hand column. Cheers!!

How to trade Nifty for Week Starting 18/04/2016

At the point we can not definitely say whether Nifty is bullish or bearish. As I will explain below shortly. So we need to explore both bullish as well as a bearish scenarios.

Bullish Scenario:

In the Nifty Spot Chart I have drawn two channels one in Brown which starts from some times in Aug 2015 and another in sky blue color which starts from some times in Oct 2015 and Nifty has broken the upper channel resistance lines of both of them.Which is extremely positive for a Bull market.
As Nifty is out of the falling trend channel lines, can easily target 8650 in near future though may not go in a straight line. But through multiple resistances at different levels. The immediate 1st resistance in this case can be 7900 and then 7972 as can be seen from the stock chart. If we successfully concur this resistance zone then next resistance will come at 8323, 8650 and ultimately all time high 9119 respectively. The support levels lies at around 7713, 7577 and 7518.

But again we need to be on high alert if any thing suddenly gets changed we should be in a position to reverse our position without any doubts.

Bearish Scenario:

We are still in a falling channel which started from Mar 2015, the blue channel. The ONLY resistance in this channel for this week is at around 7900 and will move lower as the time passes. But this is a huge resistance and if Nifty is unable to cross this resistance level will sell off immediately and also with high magnitude. If this happens then Nifty can fall all along to 7518 initially and then even upto 7000 odd levels. But it is too early to go with that scenario. Anyway trade with high alert and as my master Ilango Sir says, "Get Rich Slowly & Quietly". Here is a link to his posts.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any updates on developing resistances in between.
Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and stock specific at the left hand column. Cheers!!

How to trade Tatamotors for Week Starting 18/04/2016

In my last post on Tatamotors, I mentioned that Tatamotors moving into strong resistance area at around 410-418 and indeed it did. It reversed exactly from 431 to move all along to 265.8 level. That means if anybody would have shorted at around 396 could easily have made 396-324 = 72 points (Rs) on each lot where the lot size for Tatamotors is 1500. So a cool profit of Rs 1,08,000/- per lot. Isn't it yummy? Now why 396 and 324? 396 because at that point it moved down very rapidly and broke below an important pivot at 396. See in the chart below in the triangle area there was some consolidation and when it broke out of the triangle and failed almost immediately and moved below 396 that’s our shorting area.

Now why 324? This is because there it move past an important pivot high and support turned resistance line and also trend line resistance as well. Pls find below the chart.

Now to successfully trade this you need to have trading discipline and a trading system or method on which you can rely. Trading discipline is required as there may be some 1 or 2 times when you will get whipsaws and have to leave with a small stop loss and that is normal. For different instrument I have different stop loss values. As I trade mostly bank nifty and Nifty futures I use stop loss as 50 and 20 points respectively and that I have using for years and with great success. Similarly for stocks I have different stop loss values for different instrument viz for Tatamotors I use just 2 points or Rs stop loss, for Maruti, I use 20 points stop loss et al.

Now let's analyze what's there in the Tatamotors store for us for this week.

Mammoth move up so far in Tatamotors. I am feeling lucky as I am able to ride both the down move as well as the up move so far. I reversed but short to long at 324 and riding till now.
Now looking at the trading chart I can see a resistance at approx. 416-431 and if we can move past it, viola the target could easily be 570-601 zone.

If you like this post do share it and leave your comment. Any question related to the topic? Feel free to ask.

Trade safe and keep checking this space for any further updates on developing resistances in between. Also check out our other publications on Nifty, Bank-nifty and other stock specific at the left hand column. You can also visit my masters (Ilango) blog for daily updates on Nifty. Happy Trading. As my mater says, Get Rich Slowly and Quietly. Cheers!!